Whither the Lib/Dems?

I have been reading a number of assessments about what happens to various parties now, and the most interesting concern the Liberal Democrats.

Mark Pack's blog had some powerful comments, and as I mentioned in a previous post, pointed me in the direction of a sober and realistic article by Ryan Coetzee, who was one of the Lib/Dems' top election strategists, on what went wrong for them:

Causes and implications of the Liberal Democrats' 2015 election result.

It seems to me that, having come through the crucible of taking part in government and then an incredible painful election defeat, the Lib/Dems could go one of two ways.

They can either remain, as they have been for the past five years, a party which tries to live in the real world and tries to come up with workable answers to the difficult challenges and choices facing councils and governments which cannot be run on the basis of being nice to everyone. This would mean they have difficulty getting back the "None of the above" protest vote which they used to rely on, and they would get fewer tactical votes. But they would keep some of the respect they have earned over the last parliament.

That would be the brave option, it's the one that does carry some risk that they could cease to exist at all but also gives them a faint chance of being back in position to influence government, maybe even back in government, by 2025. If they go down that route there is just a chance the electorate might notice that they could be a far better alternative to the Conservatives - or whatever is the main centre-right party, because we Tories must not assume our present ascendancy will last forever - than the current Labour party is.

Or the Lib/Dems can try to return to their comfort zone as a protest party. In which case they will survive, but will stay at the level where you could fit all their MPs in one minibus for a long time, just as the Liberal party did for a large part of the 20th century.

In either event I suspect that after the tuition fees debacle they will be far more careful what they promise in future, which would be a very great improvement.

I don't know whether any of the doubts in voters' minds over the Labour party which contributed to Miliband's defeat was due to people noticing that Labour attacks on the Lib/Dems over tuition fees were total hypocrisy given Labour's own almost identical behaviour over election promises on tuition fees at the 1997 and 2001 general elections which were also broken. With far less excuse.

But Labour won't learn that lesson, or apologise. They never do.

Unlike Labour, some Lib/Dems have shown that they are capable of learning from their mistakes. And the same electoral system which crucified them this month might bring them back and crucify Labour if for the third consecutive time Labour make a bad mistake about their leadership.

(I'm counting leaving Gordon Brown in place to fight the 2010 election as their first - a Conservative PM who was such a disaster would certainly have been removed by the party - and electing Ed Miliband as their second. Electing Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper might well be the hat-trick.)


If the Lib/Dems can avoid a retreat to their comfort zone, the possibility that they might regain from Labour the position the Liberals once held as the main progressive contender for power in Britain might not be nearly as impossible as it may appear today.

Comments

Jim said…
The lib Dems will bounce back, honestly I can feel it. They will probably learn to not make promises they cant keep, but i can honestly see them making a comeback.

They were shot six times by Tuition Fees, thats when the bell started tolling, though i really do sense a comeback.

Labour - well I don't know, they were crippled by the signing of lisbon and the election that never was. The grave was already there, but then Ed Milliband appeared and poured concrete on top of it.

UKIP - cant progress until they finally ditch Farage, and come up with a realistic exit plan. Been trying to tell them that for a long time, but it just falls on deaf ears.

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