On self-defeating prophesies and UKIP

There is very little chance that UKIP will form the next UK government. There is a very real chance that votes for UKIP may affect who does. This creates two very real problems for potential UKIP voters and the country.

The first problem that it is extremely difficult to be certain what that impact will be. The second problem is that any belief on the subject which comes to be believed could easily be self-defeating.

It is entirely reasonable for David Cameron to argue, as many others believe, that a vote for UKIP could let Ed Miliband and Ed Balls into Downing street, or as he and Grant Shapps have put it,

"When you go to bed with Nigel Farage, you wake up with Ed Miliband."

If, as has mostly been the case up until now in many parts of the country, the largest block of UKIP votes come from people who would otherwise have voted Conservative, this could well be correct.

The frightening thing is that a combination of former Conservative voters turning to UKIP and the inherent bias in the electoral system could see Ed Miliband elected Prime Minister with the lowest ever share of the electorate voting for him - which on Labour's current policies means no referendum on Europe, no clear policies to cut the deficit, and no clear Long Term Economic Plan. It also means we would have a PM who thinks that the main problem with Gordon Brown and Tony Blair is that they were not left-wing enough - and in whom even his own party have very little confidence. (see next post).

However, it is also evident that some former Labour voters are getting fed up with being taken for granted by the party to which in the past they have given loyal support, and some of those have turned to UKIP. If more  people who would otherwise have voted Labour go to UKIP than switch to them from the Conservatives, then the opposite will happen. The problem is that we really do not know.

What we do know for certain is that the one party which is combines being committed to a referendum on Europe, having any chance of being able to deliver it, and having a long-term economic plan which is sorting out Britain's economic difficulties, is the Conservatives.

If you're reading this and would like to help deliver a referendum on EU membership, sort out a fair constitutional settlement for England as well as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, cut the deficit, here are two ways to help -Join Team 2015, the Conservative campaign network, or support the Conservative campaign by donating.


Yes, I'd like to join Team2015 Not now, but I will help by donating

The next election is the most important in a generation. It is a serious choice because so much is at stake.

In just 4 years, we've created 1.8 million jobs, cut the deficit by over a third and Britain now has the fastest growing economy of any major advanced country.

We can continue on that path and secure a better future for people across Britain - or risk it all with a vote for Labour, the Lib Dems or UKIP.

Let's secure that better future. Please join Team2015 today - or donate £20 towards our campaign.

Comments

Jim said…
Yes, I could not resist the last comment, oh come on, it was pretty amusing. Although IMHO The fact of the matter as far as Haywood and Middleton was concerned (a "safe" labour seat) was simply one of turnout. I dont think so many usual labour voters voted UKIP, they just stayed at home instead. UKIP to many are also a protest vote vehicle, often happens in a by-election, but less so in a GE.

Now I would expect turnout at the next GE to be higher, and the seat to return to a deeper shade of red. However, i would also add that i expect turnout to be lower than it was in 2010.

This is really the key point, Getting people to vote in the first place. I dont think (and again just my opinion) but i really dont think that "vote blue in order to stop red in its tracks" will tempt many people to go to a polling station.

People tend to vote for something they want, and in a lot of cases its kind of like voting for the best deal. The "hold your nose and vote for X" just does not have the same attraction.

Now I will vote conservative this time, but the only reason is because DC has made a serious error with his "renegotiation and 2017 referendum" he does not have time for the renegotiation bit, at least not meaningful renegotiation. This is a mistake on which the Anti EU side can captialise, its turned this into a winnable referendum. Thats why i want it, and thats why I will vote tory.

But thats just it, I have a valid reason to vote tory, if i had no such positive reason to vote for any party then i would stay at home. I would not vote for a government I dont want, just to prevent a government I want even less. I either vote for what i want or I spit out the dummy and don't vote at all. Keep your eye on those turnout figures and UKIP votes and you may notice a lot of people think the same way.

There lies the answer, give people a positive reason to vote conservative, forget "vote for blue, because if you vote purple, you may get red"
Jim said…
Back to the humorous side of "that" by election.

Liz McInnes speech was brilliant. She had held a labour seat by the skin of her teeth, she had the support of less than 15% of the electorate, and stood up and said
it was a "ringing endorsement for Ed Milliband"

work that out if you can.
Chris Whiteside said…
I agree that the comment was funny.

It does work better as a joke than as a serious argument though, unless the argument you are making is that parties who want people to support them should provide positive reasons to vote for them and not just ask voters for their support to stop the other lot.

If that latter point was the point you were making then I accept it.

Chris Whiteside said…
Oh and I agree with you about the "Ringing endorsement for Ed Miliband."

If that kind of swing away from Labour was a ringing endorsement I hope Miliband gets many more like it.

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