As the count continues at Newark ..

James Landale at the BBC tweets that a Labour source told him that the Conservatives had thrown "the kitchen sink, the butler's sink, the crockery and even the Aga" at the Newark by-election.

A very amusing one-liner, but if that's supposed to be a criticism it should not be.

The only Conservatives who I can recall holding seats in parliamentary by-elections while we were in government in my political lifetime were David MacLean in Penrith & the Borders in 1979, Teddy Taylor in Southend, Patrick McLoughlan in South Staffs, Steve Norris in Epping Forest, and William Hague in Richmond in 1989.

All of these were exceptionally strong candidates (one future party leader and all the rest were or became ministers or shadow cabinet members), every one narrowly held on to a normally safe seat, sometimes with the aid of very unusually helpful circumstances, and the most recent of these by-elections was 25 years ago.

The only time we gained a seat at a by-election while in government in my lifetime was when the late Angela Rumbold won Mitcham & Mordern and the circumstances were still more remarkable - a Labour defector to the SDP decided to resign and fight a by-election but was unfortunate enough to time his resignation so that the by-election took place during the Falklands War.

Unless my memory has gone seriuosly haywire, we have not won or held a Westminster by-election while in government since Hague's Richmond win in 1989.

With that kind of record in by-elections, not to make a major effort in the seat would have been an act of political insanity.

We shall see what happens. The polls suggest the Conservatives should win easily but despite this and despite getting a friendly reception on the doorstep when I was there on Sunday, personally I will be pleased if we simply manage to hold the seat.

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