Quote of the day 28th May 2014

"A significant chunk of the electorate actually like the idea of coalition government, and want another one. Only four fifths of current Conservative voters say a Tory overall majority is their preferred result.

"That is obviously something to bear in mind if Conservatives are tempted over the next year to start setting out the kind of Tory utopia they could unleash if only they had Whitehall to themselves."

(Lord Ashcroft on his website and addressing Saturday's Conservative Home conference on the results of his recent extensive polling work.)

Comments

Jim said…
Talking of the coalition, do you think Cleggy will still be leader of the Lib Dems end of next week?

I am not sure myself, but i cant see him being leader for the next GE unless he does something pretty quick, his party seem to want shot of him.

For what its worth I also have my doubts about Ed Milliband leading labour into the GE, they seem to be wanting shot of him too.

Even Nigel Farage is constantly talking about retiring now and going out on a high, will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks, will the dust settle or will it not? we just don't know.
4:12 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
It's very difficult to change party leaders in the year before a General Election.

Look how Labour bottled getting rid of Brown in 2009.

None of the major parties ever removes a leader because some people think he or she is driving them over a cliff. In fact the only party that ever has the nerve to ditch a leader even when it is totally obvious that he or she is driving them over a cliff is the Conservatives, and we've only done it three times in the last fifty years.
9:23 am
Jim said…
Who were they?, Im guessing IDS is one, who were the others?

I know Thatcher was pretty much pushed, though i did not think she was that bad, many people did though I guess. The only other i could think it could be would be micheal howard but this is another i am uncertain on.

Cant be Major, he resigned after losing a General election, a standard thing really, cant think who else there is.
4:04 pm
Jim said…
I know Labour decided to keep he whom shall not be named in 09, but that was a good thing. Well, it was a good thing if you didn't want them to the 2010 election anyway. keeping him I think is one of the prime reasons they lost it.

Keeping Ed Milliband would be a very likely way for history to repeat. As for Nick Clegg, well the Lib Dems know they need to do something as they are all but dead in the water, the EU sideshow proved that point.

I guess to change leaders 1 year before a GE does risk defeat, however, its probably the best option if to keep the current leader ensures it.
4:15 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
The three Conservative party leaders who were pushed out against their will by the party in the past fifty years were Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher, and IDS.

I base that statement on the fact that all the others jumped at a time of their own choosing rather than waiting to be pushed.

Ted Heath and Maggie Thatcher withdrew from the second round of contested leadership elections, after respectively Ted came second to Maggie on the first ballot and she in turn failed to defeat Heseltine by a large enough first ballot margin to win outright.

IDS was the one Conservaive leader who pushed it to the bitter end and was actually sacked.

Michael Howard, John Major, William Hague, Harold MacMillan, and Alec Douglas Hume all announced that they were stepping down as party leader before anyone started a mechanism to challenge them or remove them.

The only case I can recall of a party represented at Wesminster other than the Conservatives sacking their leader is when the Lib/Dems forced out Charles Kennedy after it became too obvious that he had an alcohol problem, though they also made life so miserable for Kennedy's successor Menzies Campbell that he quit.

As for "he who shall not be named" - he demonstrated just how hard the Labour party find it to force out a leader who doesn't want to go. A Conservative leader who was as unpopular as Brown would very possibly have been forced out in 2008, and certainly after the 2009 elections.
9:37 am
Jim said…
Ah, Ted Heath, thanks for that Chris, forgot about him, though it was before my time :)

I was't around for much of 1975 (only the last 5 days of it)
11:39 am
Jim said…
Though one of the best i do remember was John Redwoods attempt to oust John Major, which was quite spectacular when it backfired.
11:45 am
Chris Whiteside said…
Oh yes, John Redwood's attempted coup must be the only example of an attempt to oust a sitting party leader which backfired even more spectacularly than Lord Oakshott's attempt to get rid of Nick Clegg just has.

Of course, Redwood walked into John Major's trap at the same time Hugh Grant got himself arrested in the USA for being caught with a prostitute and made his "I did something insane" mea culpa speech. A number of cartoonists and others made a joke of depicting Redwood as Hugh Grant in the prison photograph with a speech bubble saying "I did something insane" ...
2:34 pm
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