Ipsos-MORI shows Tories leading Labour by 2 to 1:

A new opinion poll shows the Conservatives on double the voting intention share of the Labour party, with a 24% lead.

The results for August with comparisons on a month ago are: CON 48% (+1): LAB 24% (-3): LD 17% (+2).

According to the BBC this lead is believed to be the biggest lead recorded for any party by the polling group concerned, Ipsos-MORI, since their records begin in 1977.

It is also the second biggest Conservative lead recorded by any reputable pollster in that 30 year period. The only higher result in that time was a 26% Conservative lead in a YouGov poll shortly after this year's May elections.

The new survey is from Ipsos-MORI - the pollster which set up a major review of its methodology following the London Mayoral result. This took a couple of months and now involves only doing voting intention polls by phone, continuing to report headline figures taking only those certain to vote, and applying special measures to counteract the effect of public sector workers being over-sampled.

There are still nearly two years to the next election, and a lot can happen in that time. Even opinion polls as good as these do not guarantee a Conservative overall majority: we cannot afford any complacency, and we have to continue to work to stay in touch with the public and build the right policies for Britain in the 21st century.

However, if the result at the next election is anything remotely like the current polls, a Conservative majority in parliament is quite possible, and it could easily include seats like Copeland.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Are you going to confess Chris?
The only reason you moved to the area is due to the impending constituency boundary changes and the chance of being elected.

Isn't this why you make all the right noises but like all politicians - do nothing?
5:07 pm
Chris Whiteside said…
Confess to what ?

I initially moved to Copeland with my family when I was selected to fight the 2005 election, which was before the boundary changes. I had promised during the selection process that if picked to fight the seat I would move to Copeland.

No reasonable person could possibly regard keeping such a promise as grounds for criticism.

We remained here after the electon for a whole raft of personal and family reasons, first among them that we like it here. At the time we bought a house here we had no way of knowing whether I would be invited to fight Copeland again.

I certainly don't accept that I "do nothing."
11:52 pm
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Nick Herbert on his visit to flood hit areas of Cumbria

Please note that the post below was published more than ten year ago on 21st November 2009 Nick Herbert MP, shadow cabinet member for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, was in Cumbria this morning to see the areas affected by the flooding. He writes on Conservative Home about his visit. Here is an extract. I’ve been in Cumbria today to see the areas affected by the floods. I arrived early in Keswick where I met officials from the Environment Agency. Although the river levels had fallen considerably and homes were no longer flooded, the damage to homes had been done. And the water which had got into houses wasn’t just from the river – it was foul water which had risen from the drains. I talked to fire crews who were pumping flood water back into the river, and discovered that they were from Tyne & Wear and Lancashire. They had been called in at an hours’ notice and had been working on the scene ever since, staying at a local hotel. You cannot fail to be impressed by the
Read more

Quotes of the day 19th August 2020

Image
"Wise men profit more from fools than fools from wise men; for the wise men shun the mistakes of fools, but fools do not imitate the successes of the wise."  ( Cato the Elder , who lived 234 BC - 149 BC, quoted in "Lives" by Plutarch.) There is a similar saying by Germany's Iron Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck: Benjamin Franklin is supposed to have put the same saying in a more humorous form: "Wise men profit by the mistakes of others, while fools will not learn even from their own blunders." See also this thread on the "Quote Investigator" website . Let us all be wise and learn from the events of the last few days.
Read more

Quote of the day 24th July 2020

Image
I was moved to put the passage below forward as a quote today when I saw a horrible post on twitter from someone writing that it was "excellent" that someone who took a different view from her about Brexit had died. I won't write which way round it was so that all the Remain supporters can assume the post was from a Brexit fanatic welcoming the death of a remainer and all the Leavers can assume it was a Remainiac welcoming one less Brexiteer. There's been plenty of nasty stuff on both sides but if you catch anyone of your own viewpoint  posting something like that who might listen to you, please do call them out on it - and point out that they're giving everyone on your side of the argument a bad name. Anyway, here's the quote from John Donne.
Read more